A “Break-Glass” Alternative (Part 3 of 3)

The final possibility that I want to put forward is perhaps the least satisfactory, and in some way the most extreme; however, it is also perhaps the most likely, and certainly the most talked about among the ideas that I’ve suggested. That would be a partition of the United States into a “Red America” and a “Blue America,” each with their own constitutional and budget arrangements and their own electorates. With the United States as closely and bitterly divided as we seem to be now, it is difficult for me to see how we repair the damage. Many of us in the center and center-left may hope for the Democratic Party to build a consistent electoral majority; those remaining on the center-right are perhaps hoping that the GOP will somehow revert to an earlier state consistent with competent government and democratic values. But neither of those seems likely to me. Rather, the most likely outcomes seem to be either extreme swings of government policy between left and right as power is exchanged in successive elections (as we appear to be seeing now), or the emergence of an autocracy (most likely right-wing) that does not depend on majority support to remain in power.

It this context, I have come to think that it might be better for the no-longer-so-United States to be divided into two independent or nearly-independent polities: one in which those of us who abhor Trump and Trumpism can be reasonably assured of comfortable electoral majorities, and can negotiate our remaining differences in the context of some version of democratic politics; the other where the many who appear to prefer a more authoritarian, reactionary and bombastic form of government can enjoy the governance that they think that they want. I think that this would provide a great deal more security for those of us in the first group than continuance of current arrangements. I also think it can be argued that it would be preferable for those with very different values to have the opportunity to live in a political world where they can (perhaps) live by those values rather than being “forced” to live under the cultural imperialism of tolerant liberals.

I see at least two great challenges for this possibility. The first, I think, is that neither side is likely to negotiate a division of the country at a point where circumstances suggest that they have the upper hand. Such a negotiation is only likely if both sides are fearful that the alternative might be nationwide power for the other. It is especially hard to see the current swaggering new Trump regime agreeing to let go of half of the country; but if Democrats and moderates regain full control of the national government in the years to come, they may also be reluctant to consider a negotiation that might consign half of the country to Trumpist rule.

The other glaring challenge is that it would be impossible to draw lines between Red America and Blue America that would not leave huge numbers of people on the “wrong” side of the boundaries. Lines based on State boundaries would inevitably put more than 40 percent of voting Americans on the wrong side, since more than 40 percent of all voters live in states where their preferred candidate lost. Lines drawn at the substate level could do a somewhat better job of separating Red and Blue populations, but it is hard to imagine the scattered aggregation of large and mid-sized metropolitan areas that would probably account for most of Blue America being governed as a single nation separate from the “Red” portions of the country OR a Red America with boundaries reminiscent of a piece of Swiss cheese and excluding most major urban areas being economically viable.*

I think that the best (but unlikely) case would be that any partition would be be accompanied by a well-organized and well-financed program to support voluntary relocations. But even if the large majority of Americans who found themselves on the “wrong” side of the border chose to remain where they were, there would almost certainly be tens of millions of Americans who would NOT want to continue living in a version of America hostile to their values, and the human and financial cost of supporting those who chose to relocate would be enormous.

I think that this could still turn out to be preferable to the path that we are on now, and more feasible than the other alternatives that I have suggested. But the choices are not great. I hope we can somehow do better.

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* Even if borders were drawn at the State level, the likely division of Red and Blue states would probably yield a Blue America with at least four non-contiguous components (Northeast, Upper Midwest, Pacific Coast, and Colorado-New Mexico) which would probably be difficult to govern as a single country.